Tough questions, definitive answers
Date Published: March 2008
Real Estate
The big questions around the real estate water cooler are:
"Is it time to buy and has the market reached the bottom?"
These are tough questions and definitive answers are impossible, but one can say with confidence that we are now 2 1/2 years closer to the bottom.
Historically, the Sacramento area has followed the Bay Area and Southern California markets by seven or eight months, however in this cycle, Sacramento leads those areas by several months.
Recent headlines in the LA Times read "Southern California home sales drop to a 20-year low." The article cited, "Fewer than 10,000 homes were sold in the six-county region..." which was the lowest since DataQuick began keeping records in 1988.
The February issue of Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter ("BAREMN") reported that January closings in Santa Clara County were the lowest of any month since 1984. Perhaps this is good news, if the Sacramento area led these areas into the housing recession, perhaps we will lead them out.
Government economic-stimulus measures including possible tax credit for buyers, lower FED rates, higher FHA loan limits should all help recovery, but it will take time. Bring it on!
In South Placer County, January new sales (239) were a robust 50.3 percent increase compared to December's 159 new sales, however this is 13.7 percent fewer sales than in January 2007.
In January, 200 escrows closed which is down from December when 226 were closed. Except for January 2000 (179), this is a 10-year low, and reflects the very low sales in November and December 2007.
January's median sales price in South Placer was $337,000, 5.6 percent less than in December ($356,928) and 21.6 percent less than in January 2007 ($430,000). Listing inventory is essentially unchanged from December and stands at 2,307 homes for sale in January. In January 2007, 2,178 homes were on the market.
In Granite Bay, January's closed sales (9) were about the same as December's (8) and are down from last January's 18 closings. It is interesting to note that six of the nine sales closed above $1,000,000.
Statistically, these larger sales skew the prices below and make them meaningless.
"Is it time to buy and has the market reached the bottom?"
These are tough questions and definitive answers are impossible, but one can say with confidence that we are now 2 1/2 years closer to the bottom.
Historically, the Sacramento area has followed the Bay Area and Southern California markets by seven or eight months, however in this cycle, Sacramento leads those areas by several months.
Recent headlines in the LA Times read "Southern California home sales drop to a 20-year low." The article cited, "Fewer than 10,000 homes were sold in the six-county region..." which was the lowest since DataQuick began keeping records in 1988.
The February issue of Bay Area Real Estate Market Newsletter ("BAREMN") reported that January closings in Santa Clara County were the lowest of any month since 1984. Perhaps this is good news, if the Sacramento area led these areas into the housing recession, perhaps we will lead them out.
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There are positive signs that fundamental improvements are being made to change the market.Government economic-stimulus measures including possible tax credit for buyers, lower FED rates, higher FHA loan limits should all help recovery, but it will take time. Bring it on!
In South Placer County, January new sales (239) were a robust 50.3 percent increase compared to December's 159 new sales, however this is 13.7 percent fewer sales than in January 2007.
In January, 200 escrows closed which is down from December when 226 were closed. Except for January 2000 (179), this is a 10-year low, and reflects the very low sales in November and December 2007.
January's median sales price in South Placer was $337,000, 5.6 percent less than in December ($356,928) and 21.6 percent less than in January 2007 ($430,000). Listing inventory is essentially unchanged from December and stands at 2,307 homes for sale in January. In January 2007, 2,178 homes were on the market.
In Granite Bay, January's closed sales (9) were about the same as December's (8) and are down from last January's 18 closings. It is interesting to note that six of the nine sales closed above $1,000,000.
Statistically, these larger sales skew the prices below and make them meaningless.
Glen Walder has been a Granite Bay resident since 1977 and a Realtor since 1992. He can be reached at glen.walder@prurealty.com.
